Design and Analysis of the Randomized Response Technique (with Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai). Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 110, Issue: 511 (September 2015), pages 1304 - 1319.

The randomized response method is a survey technique that seeks to reduce potential bias due to non-response and social desirability when asking questions about sensitive behaviors and beliefs. This survey methodology asks respondents to use a randomization device, such as a coin flip, whose outcome is unobserved by the enumerator. By introducing random noise, the method conceals individual responses and consequently protects respondent privacy. While numerous methodological advances have been made, we find surprising few applications of this promising methodology. In this paper, we address this gap by (1) reviewing standard designs available to applied researchers, (2) developing various multivariate regression techniques for substantive analyses, (3) proposing power analyses to help improve research designs, (4) presenting new robust designs that are based on less stringent assumptions than those of the standard designs, and (5) making all described methods available through open-source software. We illustrate some of these methods with an original survey about militant groups in Nigeria.

Power of four standard designs across probabilities of asking for the truth (x-axis) for N=500 and proportions of .1, .2, and .3 with the sensitive trait.

Presented at MPSA 2015.                                                                                                                                                                Links: (Paper) (Replication materials) (Slides)


Refugee Proximity and Support for Citizenship Exclusion in Africa

As forced migration reaches unprecedented levels, understanding how it affects local host communities is critical. This article examines how the presence of refugees can change local citizens' opposition to citizenship inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa, an understudied region where sizable refugee populations are hosted. Using new data on the geographic locations of refugee communities, and 35,000 geo-referenced Afrobarometer respondents across 22 countries, I find that citizens who live near refugees in their country are substantially more likely to support restrictions on citizenship access -- particularly with respect to granting birthright citizenship -- compared to fellow citizens farther away. This effect is stronger for newer refugee sites. Placebo tests support the claim that there is no selection on unobserved confounders. Furthermore, citizens near refugees report lower confidence in the national economy and less interpersonal trust, which suggests that the threats they perceive from refugee proximity are both economic and social.

Map of citizen respondents and refugee sites; and effects of refugee site proximity on support for jus sanguinis vs. jus soli citizenship regimes.

Presented at ISA 2014, APSA 2014, CAPERS Spring 2015, WZB Conference on Migration and Diversity 2015, USC Political Science Dept. 2017, Penn State's New Faces in Political Methodology IX.                                                                                                                Links: (Working Paper)

Do Refugees Spread Conflict? (with Andrew Shaver)

As the number of forcibly displaced individuals around the world continues to reach record highs, understanding how their presence affects conflict is a major outstanding academic and policy question. Using new geo-coded data on refugee sites and civil conflict data at the subnational level from 1989 to 2008, we find no support for claims that refugees increase the likelihood of civil conflict where they settle. Moreover, we find that provinces hosting refugee sites experience substantively large decreases in their likelihood of civil conflict, when there are no other provinces hosting refugee sites within the same country for a given year. We confirm these findings when examining heterogeneous effects of formal refugee camps and informal settlements. To exclude the possibility of selection on unobserved confounders, we use placebo tests to show that there are no effects of future refugee sites on conflict outcomes.

Map of civil conflict onset propensity and refugee sites (both formal and informal) for the period 1989 - 2008 at the subnational province level.

Presented at ISA 2014 and APSA 2015.                                                                                                                                           Links: (Working Paper)

The Role of Self-Efficacy Beliefs in Development: Evidence from Tanzania (with Evan Lieberman)

Self-efficacy beliefs routinely predict active political participation in advanced democracies, but much less is known about the role of efficacy in developing contexts. We theorize that the link from socio-economic status (SES) to efficacy may be explained by opportunities to experience successful episodes of participation. Thus, while SES is difficult to change in the short run, it may be possible to boost efficacy and active citizenship among poor citizens through exposure to such opportunities. We investigate these propositions in the context of public education in rural Tanzania. First, we detail observational evidence demonstrating a strong relationship between self-efficacy and active citizenship behaviors. Next, we show that a novel meeting-based intervention -- Validated Participation, which affords parents a unique opportunity to discuss evidence, make decisions, and receive validation -- causes a large boost in efficacy among poor parents. We also find suggestive evidence of behavior change in parents reported by teachers.

Effects of Validated Participation (VP) vs. Information only (IW) compared to Control (SO) on measurements of efficacy for poor vs. wealthy parents.

Presented at WGAPE NYU Abu Dhabi 2016, APSA 2017, Yale ISPS Experiments Workshop 2018, Ideas & Evidence at Twaweza East Africa 2018.                                                                                                                                                                                         Links: (Working Paper) (Pre-Analysis Plan) (Slides)

Combatant Support and Economic Interventions in Wartime: Experimental Evidence from Cash Transfers and Livelihood Training in Afghanistan (with Jason Lyall and Kosuke Imai)

Governments, militaries, and aid agencies use economic interventions to win "hearts and minds" in wartime. Yet rigorous evidence of whether these programs can shift support for governments and insurgents remains scarce. We experimentally evaluate a program of livelihood training and one-time unconditional cash transfers on combatant support among 2,579 at-risk youths in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Employing survey methodologies for sensitive questions, we find that training alone has little effect on combatant support. Cash has a boom-and-bust dynamic, initially increasing pro-government sentiment before reversing itself by 7 months, leading to higher Taliban support. When combined with livelihood training, cash increased support for the Afghan government while marginally decreasing pro-Taliban sentiment. We interpret these results as consistent with a "credit capture" argument. While each intervention alone was a weak signal of government competency, the combination of vocational training and cash provided participants with sufficient information to revise their beliefs about government performance.

Effects of training (TVET) and cash (UCT) on combatant support measured with endorsement and randomized response at endline and 7 months later.

Presented at the 11th Annual NYU CESS Conference on Experimental Political Science and MPSA 2018.                                                  Links: (Working Paper) (Pre-Analysis Plan) (Poster) (Monkey Cage Article)


How Refugees Affect Citizens' National and Ethnic Identities: Evidence from Tanzania

A common claim about contemporary African politics is that citizens feel low attachment to their nation relative to subnational identities such as ethnicity. This project offers a theory of boundary-making in which pressures generated from weak borders lead citizens in border regions to stengthen attachment to their national identity. Through elite interviews, focus groups, and an original geo-coded survey experiment of over 2000 citizen respondents living around a rapidly expanding refugee camp in a rural Tanzanian border region, this project finds that the presence of refugees substantially increases local citizens’ attachment to their national identity and decreases their attachment to ethnic identities. Whether this increase in national solidarity leads to greater public goods cooperation among citizens is unclear; only when nearby citizens are informed about the conflict that displaced refugees are they more likely to demand for or contribute to better public goods provision for their own communities.

Measuring levels of attachment to various identities (e.g. regional, ethnic, national) by asking citizen respondents to distribute 10 beads across 6 bins.

Presented at MPSA 2017 and APSA 2017.                                                                                                                                        Links: (Pre-Analysis Plan)

Migration, Coethnicity, and Citizenship Policy in Africa

Measuring Identities on Surveys as Baskets of Beads

Studying Sensitive Questions (with Graeme Blair, Kosuke Imai, and Yuki Shiraito)

The Impact of Community Development Projects on Violence in Afghanistan (with Jason Lyall and Kosuke Imai)